CNN recently published
this article which reviews four scenarios describing the future evolution of Google. These are based on responses from questions put to a variety of technologists including former Google employees and tech visionaries. In three of the scenarios, Google becomes increasingly monopolistic and ubiquitous, though to differing degrees:
1) Google becomes the next media superpower – traditional media channels like newpaper and TV are eventually absorbed into the Google framework (key quote: “…a new generation of content creators was growing up–one that did not see why a story should be printed in the New York Times or a movie distributed by Paramount if it was all going to end up on Google anyway…”
2) Google becomes the “Matrix” – Google is everywhere. By combining extensive web caching and fast internet access, Google eventually becomes the internet – instead of accessing webpages from the ‘net directly, it becomes faster just to download them from Google’s servers. Combined with free WiFi offerings, information and services (of all sorts) eventally become instantly and universally available, and Google is the source of all. Key quote: ..Did you google dinner yet?
3) Google becomes God – it all starts with the far-reaching aim of concentrating all available human knowledge and using this to predict future problems and dangers to mankind. Sounds familiar? Well, probably only about a hundred or so sci-fi movies have made this the central theme or at least part thereof. Anyway, with its supreme technological capability and huge (and rapidly growing) archive of the world’s information, who know’s, Google just might make it. Anyway, eventually the program written to do all this cool stuff becomes self aware and becomes a kind of benevolent over-intelligence. Key quote: ..They-Who-Were-Google are no longer alone.Now we are all Google...
The fourth scenario (actually listed as the third, probably for variety’s sake) has Google gradually bogged down by the technological and social problems that will inevitably accumulate as a result of its rapidly growing significance and influence. Hackers exploit the PageRank and Adwords mechanisms in a variety of ways. Disgruntled employees abuse Google’s vast store of private data. Lawsuits and other Legal woes accumulate. Slow death. Key quote: ..Meanwhile, virtually no one attempted to optimize results on Microsoft’s MSN search, which had room to improve far beneath the SEOs’ radar..